Market Pulse
Gasoline inventories fell 2.3 million barrels and remain nearly 20 million barrels below year-ago levels. With increased holiday travel ahead of the Fourth of July, gasoline supplies are expected to tighten further, supporting gasoline prices relative to diesel.
Diesel inventories increased 2.5 million barrels due to weaker demand and lower exports, pressuring diesel prices. Propane inventories posted only a modest 1.3 million barrel build as lower prices boosted summer refill demand. Exports remain near average, with no sign that Enterprise’s export expansion has started. Continued delays could result in excess propane supplies at Mt. Belvieu.
Overall U.S. petroleum demand remains solid, with total products supplied averaging 20.6 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up 1.7% from a year ago.
Fundamentals
EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Inventory in MM’s BBLS
| Commodity | US Inventory | Change | 5 Yr Ave | CURRENT MARKETS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 408.4 | -3.8 | 441 | WTI Crude: -1.28 |
| Gasoline | 214.0 | -2.3 | 229 | RBOB: 0.0566 |
| Distallates | 108.6 | 2.5 | 118 | Heating Oil: -0.0136 |
| Commodity | US Inventory | Change | Midwest Invent | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propane | 91.3 | 1.3 | 21.4 | 0.7 |
Propane
Propane prices remained stable, supported by consistent retail demand and relatively low pricing compared with crude oil. Propane’s value relative to crude increased to 40% at Conway and 44% at Mt. Belvieu.
The Nederland NGL Export Terminal announced an expansion project that will increase ethane export capacity by 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) and add 55,000 bpd of LPG export capacity. The project will be completed in phases, with the first phase expected to come online in 2028.
Propane exports are estimated to have declined week over week, as loading delays at the Nederland terminal are expected to persist into next week.
U.S. Crop Summary
The USDA’s June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks Report, combined with this week’s Crop Progress Report, paints a picture of another year with generally adequate grain supplies, assuming favorable weather continues. While farmers planted 3% fewer corn acres than last year, June 1 corn stocks were 14% higher, indicating there is still plenty of corn in storage. Soybean acreage increased 5% from a year ago, and soybean inventories were also up 5%, reinforcing expectations for comfortable supplies heading into the 2026/27 marketing year. Wheat was the exception, with planted acreage declining 6% from last year. Although wheat stocks remain above year-ago levels, the reduction in planted acres could limit new-crop production and provide some support to wheat prices.
The latest Crop Progress Report suggests the growing season is off to a solid start. Corn and soybean conditions remain above historical averages despite slight declines from the previous week as some areas experienced hotter and drier weather. Both crops are also developing slightly ahead of normal, while the winter wheat harvest continues to progress at a faster-than-average pace. Taken together, the two USDA reports indicate that current grain supplies remain ample, and the 2026 crop has the potential to add to those supplies if favorable weather persists. As a result, market attention is shifting away from acreage estimates and inventories and toward July weather, when rainfall and temperatures during corn pollination and soybean pod development will have the greatest influence on final yields and price direction.
Humor
Disclaimer: The data, information and related graphics (collectively, “Information”) is for general information use only and is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Dale Petroleum Company does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does DPC assume any liability for any inaccurate or incomplete information. The Information is not intended to be a research report nor an analysis of a company and it should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. The information is subject to change without notice, is for general information only and is not intended as any offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as personal investment advice.